Posted by
The INFORMER (Cokie907@yahoo.com) on Friday, May 02, 2008 1:55:21 PM
I may be no Alan Greenspan but after the late 1990's, when the media sucked us into the "Potemkin Village" of fraudulent stock market values that collapsed cataclysmically in 2000, I sure know "irrational exuberance" when I see it! Today, all I hear is good news about the Dow index crossing 13,000 again, positive GDP growth of 6/10th of a percent for the last quarter, a rising dollar and unemployment actually going down. So why be so "gloom and doom" Mister Meat and Taters, could it be that you just need something to belly-ache about?
No, I have much better things to do with my valuable time than belly-ache. I could give Condi a flea bath, clean the grout around my tub or even begin my spring cleaning regimen perhaps! But all that can wait because the mission statement of this column cannot be ignored at a time when the threats to our nation's future are so grave. "To inform, entertain and wake-up Dunderheaded Douchebags", otherwise known affectionately as "Double D's". :-)
If you look throughout history, nothing happens in a straight line. By that, I mean that almost nothing increases or decreases at a constant rate or happens in "linear" fashion. Look at stock market graphs or GDP outputs before recessions and even the Great Depression and you'll see that positive news happened right before or after the onset of absolute calamity. Most recently, in the case of the Clinton stock market melt-down of 2000, the markets actually came roaring back for a time period which lulled people into thinking fundamental threats to the market were now gone. These foolhardy types, myself included, actually dumped thousands of dollars into a market that was only ready to go down farther as the end of 2000 came near and the election of Bush v. Gore had to be decided in the US Supreme Court. Most of these stocks never came back to those meteoric levels.
Don't feel sorry for me, I learned from that painful experience and won't make the same mistakes but I'm afraid others might. Right now, we are seeing the effects of irrational exuberance just like we did in 2000. We must remain cognizant of the FUNDAMENTAL problems our country faces and acknowledge that these problems are NOT going away anytime soon. What are some of these problems, in true Meat and Taters fashion I'll make 'em quick. After all, the next episode of "American Idol" is about to come on:
1) the energy crisis - It is causing rampant inflation of as much as 11 percent, forcing people to allocate money only to bare necessities and could cause an implosion of the airline industry as well as the travel industry. Additionally, this is spawning a seperate but related food crisis due to reasons articulated in my previous column "Cruel, cruel summer...". Give it a read and you'll understand why food and energy prices are intrinsically related. You'll also gain an insight as to why political decisions have created this crisis. Nawwww, tell me that couldn't be possible!
2) global competition - Industrialized growth of other countries was inevitable and isn't the fault of President Bush, the Pope or Mickey Mouse. It just "plain happened" but our politicians have helped it along by making stupid policies and then endorsing the status quo. Some of these policies include trade agreements with China during the Clinton years, corporate tax laws and excessive regulations.
3) the threat of terrorism - After 9/11 we had no alternative but to wage a war on Islamo-Fascism or radical Islam as it is known by some. This has placed a massive strain on our military men/women and their families and sucked precious dollars from our treasury. Our government agencies made crucial mistakes, underestimated the difficulties and the rest of the world has not helped us with the fight.
4) illegal immigration - Little has been done about this growing problem for decades and despite the threat of terrorism spreading over the southern border after 9/11, nothing of true substance has been done. This is the fault of both parties and many presidents, even though Ronald Reagan tried to strike a compromise in the late 1980's. Until someone has the political tamarity to act on it, we will be burdened in a massive way by the costs of people who are encouraged and assisted by their own government to carry out an "invasion" of our country.
Now, let's be honest with ourselves and grow up like big adults. These 4 problems are not going away ANYTIME SOON!!! I listed the energy crisis FIRST for a reason folks. This is by far, the most daunting challenge we face because our nation's growth happened after the discovery of oil. This country was almost nothing until oil was discovered in the 1850's while European countries had been around and enjoyed slow growth for hundreds of years previous to that point. Along came fossil fuels and SHAZAM! America exploded with unreal invention and innovation that carried us through the industrial revolution to the jet and space age in just 75 years. Think about what kind of addiction to fossil fuel this country has because we were accustomed to it, almost from our nation's infancy. Weaning us off of fossil fuels will take generations to accomplish and will be about as painful as having a root canal done without the benefit of novacaine. OUCH!
So before you plunge in to "catch a falling knife" with today's stock market, think of what I've identified here and decide for yourself if things are or aren't so bad, after all. Personally, I'm going to wait this one out and play it safe, like I should have in the late 90's.